Year 1 breaks even at ₱111.30/kg — below every price scenario tested, but the margin above the below-median floor is now much thinner.
Updated Year 1 total cost is ₱2,582,800 — up from the prior ₱1,886,000 estimate, driven by the two lease payments (₱600,000, treated as a Year 1 lump sum per your instruction) and reconciling in the ₱376,272 farm expense ledger (Expenses.ods, cross-checked against the Rainier Bautista chat) to close the gap between your listed categories and your stated total. Production basis is unchanged at 23,205 kg (Path B, 420g harvest). The farm still clears break-even at all three price points — below-median ₱120/kg, median ₱140/kg, ceiling ₱160/kg — but margin at the below-median floor has dropped from 32.3% to 7.2%. Year 2 and Year 3 exclude the lease lump sum (it's a one-time Year 1 payment, not a recurring cost) and otherwise repeat Year 1's recurring cost and output scale flat — not a growth forecast. See Section 8 before treating Y2/Y3 as final.
1 Year 1 Cost Breakdown
Figures as given — the eight cost categories for the current cycle, including the reconciled expense ledger line that closes the gap to your stated ₱2,582,800 total:
| Category | Amount | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Feeds | ₱1,246,528 | 48.3% |
| Lease — 1st & 2nd year | ₱400,000 | 15.5% |
| Reconciled ledger — other farm expenses (Expenses.ods) | ₱376,272 | 14.6% |
| Lease installment — 3rd year (paid Yr 1) | ₱200,000 | 7.7% |
| Potential labor | ₱135,000 | 5.2% |
| Other expense | ₱100,000 | 3.9% |
| Salary A | ₱85,000 | 3.3% |
| Salary B | ₱40,000 | 1.5% |
| Total Year 1 cost | ₱2,582,800 | 100% |
2 Production Basis (Year 1)
Survival: 85% → 55,250 survivors
Harvest weight: ~420g (Path B, matches feed cost given)
Total production: 55,250 × 0.420 kg = 23,205 kg
If actual survival or harvest weight comes in different from this (confirm with a Day 30–40 weigh-sample per BFS-020 Section 9), production and every revenue figure below scales directly — re-run with the real number once known.
3 Break-Even Price — Individual by Year
| Year | Total Cost | Production | Break-Even Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (incl. ₱600,000 lease) | ₱2,582,800 | 23,205 kg | ₱111.30/kg |
| Year 2 (flat baseline, ex-lease) | ₱1,982,800 | 23,205 kg | ₱85.45/kg |
| Year 3 (flat baseline, ex-lease) | ₱1,982,800 | 23,205 kg | ₱85.45/kg |
| 3-Year Cumulative | ₱6,548,400 | 69,615 kg | ₱94.07/kg |
Year 1 break-even is higher than Year 2/3 because it carries the one-time ₱600,000 lease lump sum. Years 2 and 3 repeat Year 1's recurring costs flat (feeds, salaries, labor, other expenses) with the lease removed — see Section 8.
4 Year 1 — Profit & Loss by Price Scenario
| Scenario | Price/kg | Revenue | Total Cost | Net Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break-even | ₱111.30 | ₱2,582,800 | ₱2,582,800 | ₱0 | 0% |
| Below-median | ₱120.00 | ₱2,784,600 | ₱2,582,800 | ₱201,800 | 7.2% |
| Median | ₱140.00 | ₱3,248,700 | ₱2,582,800 | ₱665,900 | 20.5% |
| Ceiling (farm-gate) | ₱160.00 | ₱3,712,800 | ₱2,582,800 | ₱1,130,000 | 30.4% |
5 Year 2 — Profit & Loss (Flat Baseline, Ex-Lease)
| Scenario | Price/kg | Revenue | Total Cost | Net Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break-even | ₱85.45 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱0 | 0% |
| Below-median | ₱120.00 | ₱2,784,600 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱801,800 | 28.8% |
| Median | ₱140.00 | ₱3,248,700 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,265,900 | 39.0% |
| Ceiling (farm-gate) | ₱160.00 | ₱3,712,800 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,730,000 | 46.6% |
6 Year 3 — Profit & Loss (Flat Baseline, Ex-Lease)
| Scenario | Price/kg | Revenue | Total Cost | Net Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break-even | ₱85.45 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱0 | 0% |
| Below-median | ₱120.00 | ₱2,784,600 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱801,800 | 28.8% |
| Median | ₱140.00 | ₱3,248,700 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,265,900 | 39.0% |
| Ceiling (farm-gate) | ₱160.00 | ₱3,712,800 | ₱1,982,800 | ₱1,730,000 | 46.6% |
7 3-Year Cumulative Summary
| Scenario | Price/kg | 3-Yr Revenue | 3-Yr Cost | 3-Yr Net Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below-median | ₱120.00 | ₱8,353,800 | ₱6,548,400 | ₱1,805,400 | 21.6% |
| Median | ₱140.00 | ₱9,746,100 | ₱6,548,400 | ₱3,197,700 | 32.8% |
| Ceiling (farm-gate) | ₱160.00 | ₱11,138,400 | ₱6,548,400 | ₱4,590,000 | 41.2% |
8 Assumptions to Confirm
- Lease timing: both lease entries ("1st and 2nd year" ₱400,000 and "installment for 3rd year" ₱200,000) are posted entirely to Year 1 per your instruction, even though the second entry's own label says "3rd year." Years 2–3 exclude the ₱600,000 lease from their flat baseline on the assumption it's a one-time upfront payment. If the ₱200,000 "3rd year" installment is actually due in Year 3 (not Year 1), tell me and I'll move it — that would lower Year 1 cost to ₱2,382,800 (break-even ₱102.69/kg) and add ₱200,000 to Year 3 (break-even ₱94.07/kg for that year alone).
- Year 2/3 scale: this statement repeats Year 1's recurring costs flat. Your BFS-007 roadmap plans Box A (3.4 ha) joining Box B (1.1 ha) for full 4.5 ha operation — if that happens, Year 2/3 cost and production should scale up roughly proportionally, not stay flat. Tell me when Box A comes online and I'll rebuild Years 2–3 properly.
- Cycles per year: this model assumes one harvest cycle per year (matching the current Box B cycle, Jun–Nov 2026). Earlier models (BFS-005) assumed 2–3 cycles/year once both boxes are running with staggered stocking — that would materially raise both cost and revenue per year.
- Reconciled ledger line (₱376,272): this is the full total from the Expenses.ods reconciliation against the Rainier Bautista Messenger chat (built earlier today), added as its own line to close the gap between your seven named categories (₱2,206,528) and your stated ₱2,582,800 total. Confirm this is the right treatment rather than double-counting against "other expense" (₱100,000) or the ₱93,000 fingerling cost from BFS-020 — check whether fingerlings are already inside this ₱376,272 figure.
- "Potential labor" (₱135,000): flagged as contingent/planned rather than committed. If this doesn't get spent, Year 1 cost drops to ₱2,447,800 and break-even improves to ₱105.49/kg.
- Price ceiling: ₱160/kg confirmed as farm-gate ceiling. Median (₱140/kg) matches the live grow tracker's assumption; below-median (₱120/kg) sits below BFAR's 2025–2026 farmgate estimate range of ₱150–170/kg as a conservative floor. Adjust if you have a firmer number.