Year 1 breaks even at ₱81.28/kg — well below every price scenario tested, including the below-median floor.
On the expense figures you gave (₱1,886,000 total) and the production this cycle is already tracking toward (23,205 kg at a 420g harvest), the farm clears break-even with room to spare at all three price points: below-median ₱120/kg, median ₱140/kg, and the ₱160/kg farm-gate ceiling. Year 2 and Year 3 are shown as a flat repeat of Year 1's cost and output scale — not a growth forecast — because you haven't confirmed whether Box A comes online, how many cycles/year to plan for, or whether costs shift. See Section 8 before treating Y2/Y3 as final.
₱81.28/kg
Year 1 break-even price
23,205 kg
Year 1 production (Path B, 420g)
₱1,362,700
Year 1 net profit @ median ₱140/kg
₱5,480,400
3-yr cumulative net @ ceiling ₱160/kg
1 Year 1 Cost Breakdown
Figures as given — the five cost categories you provided for the current cycle:
Category
Amount
% of Total
Feeds
₱1,250,000
66.3%
Unlabeled expense
₱376,000
19.9%
Potential labor
₱135,000
7.2%
Salary A
₱85,000
4.5%
Salary B
₱40,000
2.1%
Total Year 1 cost
₱1,886,000
100%
Feed cost cross-check: your ₱1,250,000 feed figure lines up almost exactly with BFS-020's modeled Path B (grow to ~420g) feed cost of ₱1,246,528 for the 65,000 fingerlings stocked Jun 24, 2026 — a 0.3% difference. That's the basis used for production and revenue in this document (Section 2).
2 Production Basis (Year 1)
Stocked: 65,000 fingerlings (Jun 24, 2026) Survival: 85% → 55,250 survivors Harvest weight: ~420g (Path B, matches feed cost given) Total production: 55,250 × 0.420 kg = 23,205 kg
If actual survival or harvest weight comes in different from this (confirm with a Day 30–40 weigh-sample per BFS-020 Section 9), production and every revenue figure below scales directly — re-run with the real number once known.
3 Break-Even Price — Individual by Year
Year
Total Cost
Production
Break-Even Price
Year 1
₱1,886,000
23,205 kg
₱81.28/kg
Year 2 (flat baseline)
₱1,886,000
23,205 kg
₱81.28/kg
Year 3 (flat baseline)
₱1,886,000
23,205 kg
₱81.28/kg
3-Year Cumulative
₱5,658,000
69,615 kg
₱81.28/kg
Break-even price is identical across all three years under the flat-baseline assumption (same cost, same output each year). It will only diverge once Year 2/3 actuals differ — see Section 8.
4 Year 1 — Profit & Loss by Price Scenario
Scenario
Price/kg
Revenue
Total Cost
Net Profit
Margin
Break-even
₱81.28
₱1,886,006
₱1,886,000
₱0
0%
Below-median
₱120.00
₱2,784,600
₱1,886,000
₱898,600
32.3%
Median
₱140.00
₱3,248,700
₱1,886,000
₱1,362,700
41.9%
Ceiling (farm-gate)
₱160.00
₱3,712,800
₱1,886,000
₱1,826,800
49.2%
5 Year 2 — Profit & Loss (Flat Baseline)
Assumption flag: this repeats Year 1's cost and production scale exactly. It does not account for Box A (3.4 ha) coming online, additional cycles/year, inflation, or lease step-ups. Treat as a floor scenario, not a growth plan — see Section 8.
Scenario
Price/kg
Revenue
Total Cost
Net Profit
Margin
Break-even
₱81.28
₱1,886,006
₱1,886,000
₱0
0%
Below-median
₱120.00
₱2,784,600
₱1,886,000
₱898,600
32.3%
Median
₱140.00
₱3,248,700
₱1,886,000
₱1,362,700
41.9%
Ceiling (farm-gate)
₱160.00
₱3,712,800
₱1,886,000
₱1,826,800
49.2%
6 Year 3 — Profit & Loss (Flat Baseline)
Same assumption as Year 2. No compounding growth, no scale-up, no inflation applied.
Scenario
Price/kg
Revenue
Total Cost
Net Profit
Margin
Break-even
₱81.28
₱1,886,006
₱1,886,000
₱0
0%
Below-median
₱120.00
₱2,784,600
₱1,886,000
₱898,600
32.3%
Median
₱140.00
₱3,248,700
₱1,886,000
₱1,362,700
41.9%
Ceiling (farm-gate)
₱160.00
₱3,712,800
₱1,886,000
₱1,826,800
49.2%
7 3-Year Cumulative Summary
Scenario
Price/kg
3-Yr Revenue
3-Yr Cost
3-Yr Net Profit
Margin
Below-median
₱120.00
₱8,353,800
₱5,658,000
₱2,695,800
32.3%
Median
₱140.00
₱9,746,100
₱5,658,000
₱4,088,100
41.9%
Ceiling (farm-gate)
₱160.00
₱11,138,400
₱5,658,000
₱5,480,400
49.2%
69,615 kg
3-year total production
₱5,658,000
3-year total cost
₱4,088,100
3-year net profit @ median ₱140/kg
8 Assumptions to Confirm
Year 2/3 scale: this statement repeats Year 1's numbers flat. Your BFS-007 roadmap plans Box A (3.4 ha) joining Box B (1.1 ha) for full 4.5 ha operation — if that happens, Year 2/3 cost and production should scale up roughly proportionally, not stay flat. Tell me when Box A comes online and I'll rebuild Years 2–3 properly.
Cycles per year: this model assumes one harvest cycle per year (matching the current Box B cycle, Jun–Nov 2026). Earlier models (BFS-005) assumed 2–3 cycles/year once both boxes are running with staggered stocking — that would materially raise both cost and revenue per year.
Fingerling cost: the ₱93,000 actual fingerling cost (BFS-020) isn't listed in your five categories. Confirm whether it's folded into "unlabeled expense" (₱376,000) or needs to be added as a separate line.
"Potential labor" (₱135,000): flagged as contingent/planned rather than committed. If this doesn't get spent, Year 1 cost drops to ₱1,751,000 and break-even improves to ₱75.46/kg.
Price ceiling: ₱160/kg confirmed as farm-gate ceiling. Median (₱140/kg) matches the live grow tracker's assumption; below-median (₱120/kg) sits below BFAR's 2025–2026 farmgate estimate range of ₱150–170/kg as a conservative floor. Adjust if you have a firmer number.