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BFS-008 · Stocking Size + Sugpo Polyculture · May 2026 · Paombong, Bulacan

Paombong Pond Farm — Stocking Size Comparison & Sugpo Polyculture

Site: 6-hectare brackishwater ponds, Paombong, Bulacan  |  Lease: ₱240,000/yr · Confirmed May 6, 2026

Layout: Nursery (500 sqm) + Box 1 (2.95 ha) + Box 2 (2.95 ha)  |  Stocking density: 40,000/box × 2 boxes = 80,000 total

This report: Compares 4 stocking sizes (fry through 5-7 inch fingerlings) and evaluates sugpo polyculture as secondary income. Builds on BFS-007.

Owner: Gary (remote, Canada)  |  Managers: Aaron & Sean  |  Base model: 80% survival · 300g harvest · ₱160/kg farmgate · ₱31/kg feed

📋 Table of Contents

  1. Common Assumptions & Farm Layout
  2. Stocking Size Overview — 4 Scenarios
  3. Master Comparison Table — All 4 Sizes
  4. Box 1 & Box 2 Cycle Schedule
  5. Sugpo Polyculture — What, Why, How
  6. Verdict & Recommendation

1. Common Assumptions & Farm Layout

Farm Parameters

ParameterValue
Total lease area6.0 hectares
Box 1 growing area2.95 ha
Box 2 growing area2.95 ha
Nursery area500 sqm
Stocking per box40,000 fish
Total stocking per cycle80,000 fish
Survival rate80% (conservative)
Target harvest weight300g per fish
Harvest biomass (2 boxes)19,200 kg/cycle
Farmgate price₱160/kg (mid-case)
Feed price₱31/kg
Culture methodSemi-extensive (lablab + supplemental feed from Month 3)

Annual Fixed Costs

ItemMonthlyAnnual
Manager salary (Rain)₱17,000₱204,000
Caretaker salary₱8,000₱96,000
Staff housing₱5,000₱60,000
Total labor₱30,000₱360,000
Pond lease₱20,000₱240,000
Total fixed₱50,000₱600,000
Lease payment structure: ₱480k prepaid (Year 1+2) at signing. Year 3: ₱120k after 1st harvest + ₱120k after 2nd harvest. 6 free months bonus at end (approx. May–Oct 2029).

One-Time Startup Costs (Base)

ItemEstimated Cost
Lease prepay (Years 1+2)₱480,000
Pond repairs & dikes (Sean's estimate)₱50,000–₱80,000
Lime & chemicals (6 ha)₱60,000–₱90,000
Fertilizers for lablab establishment₱20,000–₱30,000
Tools, nets, harvest equipment₱30,000–₱50,000
Contingency (10%)₱64,000–₱73,000
Base startup (before fingerlings)≈ ₱970,000
How to read this report: All four scenarios use the same farm, same boxes, same managers, and same fixed costs. The only difference is the SIZE of fingerling stocked — which determines the grow-out period, number of cycles per year, and fingerling cost. The scenario that wins on 3-year total profit is not necessarily the one with the cheapest fingerlings.

2. Stocking Size Overview — 4 Scenarios

The key insight: larger (more expensive) fingerlings arrive closer to harvest weight, reducing grow-out time and enabling more cycles per year. The critical trade-off is higher fingerling cost vs. more cycles per year.

Scenario 1 — Lowest Cost Entry
Fry
₱0.50/pc
Avg weight: 0.1g
Grow-out: ~150 days
Cycles/year: 1.85
Fingerling cost: ₱40,000
3.5yr net: ₱9,273,000
Scenario 2
Size 2-3-4 inch
₱1.80/pc
Avg weight: ~15g
Grow-out: ~130 days
Cycles/year: 2.18
Fingerling cost: ₱144,000
3.5yr net: ₱11,697,000
Scenario 3 — ★ Recommended
Size 3-4-5 inch
₱2.20/pc
Avg weight: ~4g
Grow-out: ~105 days
Cycles/year: 2.4
Fingerling cost: ₱176,000
3.5yr net: ₱12,952,000
Scenario 4 — Maximum Cycles
Size 5-7 inch
₱8.00/pc
Avg weight: ~60g
Grow-out: ~80 days
Cycles/year: 3.5
Fingerling cost: ₱640,000
3.5yr net: ₱16,181,000
Important on fry: Fry (0.1g) are highly sensitive and require a nursery phase before transfer to growing ponds. The current 500 sqm nursery handles ~15,000 fry at a time — a second nursery batch would be needed, adding 4–6 weeks and management complexity. This is manageable but requires careful timing. Scenarios 2-4 skip the nursery bottleneck.

Scenario 1: Fry — ₱0.50/pc

Grow-out Profile
Stocking weight~0.1 g (post-larva to fry)
Nursery phase4–6 weeks in 500 sqm nursery
Grow-out period~120–130 days in growing pond
Total cycle (incl. 25d prep)~197 days (~6.5 months)
Cycles per year1.85 (≈ every 6.6 months)
Per-Cycle Economics (2 Boxes)
Fingerling cost80,000 × ₱0.50 = ₱40,000
Revenue (19,200 kg × ₱160)₱3,072,000
Variable costs (feed, lime, misc)~₱1,155,000
Fixed costs per cycle₱324,000
Net per cycle₱1,553,000
YearCyclesGross RevenueTotal CostsNet ProfitCumulative Net
Year 1 (incl. startup)1.85₱5,683,200₱4,666,200₱1,987,000₱1,987,000
Year 21.85₱5,683,200₱2,810,200₱2,873,000₱4,860,000
Year 3 + 6mo free2.3₱7,065,600₱3,433,600₱3,632,000₱8,492,000
3.5-Year Total Net to Owner₱9,273,000
CAUTION: Fry are the cheapest to buy but require nursery management, have the highest early mortality risk, and deliver only 1.85 cycles/year. Only recommended if fingerling supply is short or prices spike above ₱5/pc for larger sizes.

Scenario 2: Size 2-3-4 inch — ₱1.80/pc

Grow-out Profile
Stocking weight~15 g
Nursery phaseNone — stock directly to growing pond
Grow-out period~105–115 days
Total cycle (incl. 25d prep)~167 days (~5.6 months)
Cycles per year2.18 (≈ every 5.6 months)
Per-Cycle Economics (2 Boxes)
Fingerling cost80,000 × ₱1.80 = ₱144,000
Revenue (19,200 kg × ₱160)₱3,072,000
Variable costs (feed, lime, misc)~₱1,119,000
Fixed costs per cycle₱275,000
Net per cycle₱1,612,000
YearCyclesGross RevenueTotal CostsNet ProfitCumulative Net
Year 1 (incl. startup)2.18₱6,697,000₱4,870,000₱2,787,000₱2,787,000
Year 22.18₱6,697,000₱3,182,000₱3,515,000₱6,302,000
Year 3 + 6mo free2.7₱8,294,000₱3,899,000₱4,395,000₱10,697,000
3.5-Year Total Net to Owner₱11,697,000
VIABLE: Good balance of cost and cycle speed. Best choice if size 3-4-5 inch fingerlings are unavailable. Skip nursery management.

Scenario 3: Size 3-4-5 inch — ₱2.20/pc ★ Recommended

★ RECOMMENDED FOR YEAR 1 — Best balance of fingerling cost, survival, and cycles per year
Grow-out Profile
Stocking weight~35 g
Nursery phaseNone — stock directly to growing pond
Grow-out period~95–105 days
Total cycle (incl. 25d prep)~152 days (~5.1 months)
Cycles per year2.4 (≈ every 5 months)
Per-Cycle Economics (2 Boxes)
Fingerling cost80,000 × ₱2.20 = ₱176,000
Revenue (19,200 kg × ₱160)₱3,072,000
Variable costs (feed, lime, misc)~₱1,087,000
Fixed costs per cycle₱250,000
Net per cycle₱1,644,000
YearCyclesGross RevenueTotal CostsNet ProfitCumulative Net
Year 1 (incl. startup)2.4₱7,373,000₱4,411,000₱2,962,000₱2,962,000
Year 22.4₱7,373,000₱3,428,000₱3,945,000₱6,907,000
Year 3 + 6mo free3.0₱9,216,000₱4,171,000₱5,045,000₱11,952,000
3.5-Year Total Net to Owner₱12,952,000
Why size 3-4-5 inch wins Year 1: Only ₱40k more per cycle than size 2-3-4 inch, but unlocks an extra 0.22 cycles/year. After 3.5 years, that's +₱1.25M more than size 2-3-4 inch. The marginal cost of the larger fingerling pays back in the first cycle.

Scenario 4: Size 5-7 inch — ₱8.00/pc

Grow-out Profile
Stocking weight~60 g
Nursery phaseNone
Grow-out period~70–80 days
Total cycle (incl. 25d prep)~104 days (~3.5 months)
Cycles per year3.5 (≈ every 3.5 months)
Per-Cycle Economics (2 Boxes)
Fingerling cost80,000 × ₱8.00 = ₱640,000
Revenue (19,200 kg × ₱160)₱3,072,000
Variable costs (feed, lime, misc)~₱715,000
Fixed costs per cycle₱171,000
Net per cycle₱1,389,000
Note on feed cost for size 5-7 inch: Shorter grow-out means less total feed consumed, which is why variable costs (excl. fingerlings) are actually lower than smaller sizes despite the higher stocking weight. The key advantage is volume of cycles, not per-cycle margin.
YearCyclesGross RevenueTotal CostsNet ProfitCumulative Net
Year 1 (incl. startup)3.5₱10,752,000₱6,850,000₱3,902,000₱3,902,000
Year 23.5₱10,752,000₱5,889,000₱4,863,000₱8,765,000
Year 3 + 6mo free4.4₱13,517,000₱6,101,000₱7,416,000₱16,181,000
3.5-Year Total Net to Owner₱16,181,000
HIGH RETURN, HIGH CAPITAL: Best 3.5-year total (₱16.2M) but requires ₱640k per cycle in fingerlings alone (vs ₱176k for size 3-4-5 inch). Cash flow pressure is significant. Recommend transitioning to this after cash reserves are established (Year 2+). If fingerling supplier relationship and finances allow — serious upside.

3. Master Comparison Table — All 4 Stocking Sizes

Metric Fry ₱0.50 2-3-4 inch ₱1.80 3-4-5 inch ₱2.20 ★ 5-7 inch ₱8.00
Fingerling cost (80k fish)₱40,000₱144,000₱176,000₱640,000
Grow-out period~150 days~130 days~105 days~80 days
Total cycle length~197 days~167 days~152 days~104 days
Cycles per year1.852.182.43.5
Nursery required?YES (4-6 wks)NoNoNo
Harvest biomass/cycle (2 boxes)19,200 kg19,200 kg19,200 kg19,200 kg
Net revenue/cycle₱3,072,000₱3,072,000₱3,072,000₱3,072,000
Variable cost/cycle (excl. fingerlings)~₱1,155,000~₱1,119,000~₱1,087,000~₱715,000
Net per cycle (after all costs)₱1,553,000₱1,612,000₱1,644,000₱1,389,000
Startup cost (total)₱1,010,000₱1,139,000₱1,196,000₱1,685,000
Year 1 net profit₱1,987,000₱2,787,000₱2,962,000₱3,902,000
Year 2 net profit₱2,873,000₱3,515,000₱3,945,000₱4,863,000
3.5-Year Total Net₱9,273,000₱11,697,000₱12,952,000₱16,181,000
Break-even price (₱/kg)₱108₱112₱110₱112
Cash flow riskLOWLOWLOW-MEDHIGH
Key Insight: Size 5-7 inch fingerlings at ₱8.00/pc produce the highest 3.5-year net (₱16.2M) despite costing nearly 4× more than size 3-4-5 inch (₱2.20). This works because 3.5 cycles/year vs 2.4 cycles/year generates an extra annual cycle worth ~₱750,000 net. However, size 3-4-5 inch is the correct Year 1 choice because it requires only ₱464k less in fingerling working capital per year — money better deployed as cash reserves while operations are new.

Recommended Phased Approach

PhaseTimingStocking SizeRationale
Year 1 (Cycles 1 & 2)Jul 2026 – May 2027Size 3-4-5 inch @ ₱2.20Proven team, establish operations, build cash buffer
Year 2 (Cycle 3 onward)Mid-2027Size 5-7 inch @ ₱8.00Scale up once systems proven; fingerling supplier locked
Option: Year 1 Box 2 upgradeCycle 2 onwardBox 2 → 50k fishIncrease density on proven box; adds ~₱250k/cycle revenue

4. Box 1 & Box 2 Cycle Schedule (Staggered Harvest)

Both boxes are stocked simultaneously. Box 1 is typically harvested 2–4 weeks before Box 2. This staggered approach benefits Gary in three ways: (1) smoother cash flow — two smaller harvest payouts vs. one large one; (2) labor buffer — harvest crew can be used twice; (3) market flexibility — doesn't dump 19,000+ kg at once.

Box 1 — 2.95 ha · 40,000 fish
CycleStockHarvest (est.)Yield
Cycle 1Early Jul 2026Mid-Oct 20269,600 kg
Cycle 2Mid-Nov 2026Late Feb 20279,600 kg
Cycle 3Late Mar 2027Early Jul 20279,600 kg
Cycle 4Aug 2027Nov 202712,000 kg (50k fish)
Box 2 — 2.95 ha · 40,000 → 50,000 fish
CycleStockHarvest (est.)Yield
Cycle 1Early Jul 2026Early Nov 20269,600 kg
Cycle 2 (upgrade)Dec 2026Mar 202712,000 kg (50k)
Cycle 3Apr 2027Jul 202712,000 kg
Cycle 4Aug 2027Nov 202712,000 kg
Harvest gap between boxes: Target 2–4 weeks between Box 1 and Box 2 harvest in each cycle. This allows the same harvest crew and transport logistics to handle both without overlap. Sugpo (when introduced in Cycle 2) is harvested at the same time as bangus — or slightly earlier with a cast net.

Cash Flow Events (Cycle 1 Example — Size 3-4-5 inch)

EventMonthCash Out (₱)Cash In (₱)Running Balance
Lease prepay + repairs + startupMay 2026₱1,196,000—-₱1,196,000
Labor (May–Sep, 5 months)May–Sep 2026₱150,000—-₱1,346,000
Feed (Month 3 to harvest)Sep–Oct 2026₱350,000—-₱1,696,000
Box 1 HarvestOct 2026—₱1,536,000-₱160,000
Box 2 HarvestNov 2026—₱1,536,000+₱1,376,000
Break-even: approximately Month 5–6 from first stockingPositive by Month 6

5. Sugpo Polyculture — What, Why, How

Sugpo vs Vannamei — Which to Choose?

🦐 Sugpo (Penaeus monodon) — Black Tiger Shrimp ★ CHOSEN

Scientific name: Penaeus monodon

Common names: Sugpo, Black Tiger Prawn, Giant Tiger Prawn

Native to Philippines: YES — well-suited to Bulacan brackish ponds

Culture type: Semi-extensive (low density, natural food + minimal supplement)

Aerators needed: NO — at low stocking density (~2,500/ha), dissolved oxygen from natural pond dynamics is sufficient

Stocking density: 2,000–4,000/ha (semi-extensive polyculture)

Harvest size: 30–50g (25–33 pcs/kg)

Grow-out time: 4–5 months (same as bangus cycle)

Farmgate price: ₱500–₱700/kg (small/medium) — premium market

Disease resistance: Moderate — robust vs. WSSV at low densities

Compatible with bangus: YES — natural polyculture partners in PH fishponds for decades

🦐 Vannamei (Litopenaeus vannamei) — Pacific White Shrimp ✗ NOT RECOMMENDED

Scientific name: Litopenaeus vannamei

Common names: Vannamei, Pacific White Shrimp, hipon puti

Native to Philippines: NO — introduced species from Pacific Americas

Culture type: Semi-intensive to INTENSIVE — requires aeration

Aerators needed: YES — mandatory even at semi-intensive densities (10,000–50,000/ha). Without aerators, mass mortality risk within 12-24 hours during low-oxygen events.

Stocking density: 10,000–100,000/ha (intensive only is viable)

Harvest size: 15–25g (40–65 pcs/kg)

Grow-out time: 3–4 months

Farmgate price: ₱200–₱350/kg (lower price, higher volume)

Disease resistance: POOR at low densities — EMS, WSSV vulnerability

Compatible with semi-extensive ponds: NOT without significant infrastructure upgrade (aerators, feeders, liner ponds)

DECISION: SUGPO. For Gary's semi-extensive Paombong pond setup, sugpo is the clear choice. It requires zero additional infrastructure (no aerators), is a proven polyculture partner with bangus, commands a premium price (₱600/kg vs. ₱250/kg for vannamei), and produces sustainable income at low management cost. Vannamei would require significant capital investment (aerators ₱50-150k) and intensive daily management that conflicts with Aaron and Sean's current bandwidth.

Sugpo Financial Model

Sugpo is introduced starting Cycle 2 — after Box 1's first harvest confirms the team's capacity
Sugpo Production Parameters (Per Box)
Pond area2.95 ha per box
Stocking density2,500 PL/ha = 7,375 PL per box
Post-larvae (PL) price₱1.00/pc (from BFAR or private hatchery)
PL cost per box₱7,375
Survival rate60% (conservative — semi-extensive)
Harvested count4,425 prawns per box
Average harvest weight40g per prawn
Harvest biomass177 kg per box
Farmgate price₱600/kg
Gross revenue per box₱106,200
Sugpo Costs Per Box Per Cycle
PL stocking cost₱7,375
Supplemental feed (minimal)₱12,000
Harvest labor (cast net)₱2,000
Misc (ice, transport, medication)₱1,375
Total variable cost/box₱22,750
Gross revenue/box₱106,200
Net profit per box per cycle₱83,450
Net profit per cycle (2 boxes)₱166,900
Additional startup cost for sugpo: ₱30,000 one-time (cast nets, holding tanks, ice supply arrangement). This covers both boxes and is reusable across cycles.

Aerator Requirement for Sugpo?

NO AERATORS NEEDED for sugpo at these densities (2,500/ha). At <5,000 PL/ha in semi-extensive ponds with natural algal blooms (lablab), dissolved oxygen remains above the 3 mg/L minimum threshold even during low-tide or warm nights. An aerator becomes advisable only if density exceeds 8,000 PL/ha or if you observe morning fish gasping (a visual DO indicator). Gary's current setup is safe without aerators.

Harvest Timing — Sugpo in Polyculture

SpeciesGrow-out (from stocking)Harvest MethodSchedule Relative to Bangus
Bangus~105 days (size 3-4-5 inch)Drain + seinesPrimary harvest event
Sugpo~100–120 daysCast nets (selective), then drainHarvest 1-2 weeks before bangus; remainder caught in drain
Stagger sugpo stocking 2 weeks AFTER bangus stocking so they reach optimal harvest size simultaneously at the end of the cycle. Alternatively, harvest sugpo by cast net when they reach target size and let bangus continue for 2 more weeks if they need more grow-out time.

Side-by-Side Comparison: Bangus Only vs Bangus + Sugpo

Sugpo is introduced in Cycle 2 onward. Year 1 shows reduced sugpo impact (only applies from Cycle 2). Year 2+ shows full sugpo benefit.

Metric Size 2-3-4 inch
Bangus Only		 Size 2-3-4 inch
+ Sugpo		 Size 3-4-5 inch
Bangus Only ★		 Size 3-4-5 inch
+ Sugpo ★★		 Size 5-7 inch
Bangus Only		 Size 5-7 inch
+ Sugpo
Startup cost ₱1,139,000 ₱1,169,000 ₱1,196,000 ₱1,226,000 ₱1,685,000 ₱1,715,000
Sugpo net/cycle (2 boxes) — ₱166,900 — ₱166,900 — ₱166,900
Year 1 net ₱2,787,000 ₱3,021,000 ₱2,962,000 ₱3,216,000 ₱3,902,000 ₱4,156,000
Year 2 net ₱3,515,000 ₱3,881,000 ₱3,945,000 ₱4,381,000 ₱4,863,000 ₱5,299,000
3.5yr total net ₱11,697,000 ₱13,131,000 ₱12,952,000 ₱14,308,000 ₱16,181,000 ₱17,537,000
Sugpo 3.5yr uplift — +₱1,434,000 — +₱1,356,000 — +₱1,356,000
Aerators required No No No No No No
★★ Recommended Combination: Size 3-4-5 inch + Sugpo (Year 1)
Adding sugpo to the size 3-4-5 inch scenario costs only ₱30k one-time and delivers +₱1.36M over 3.5 years at nearly zero operational complexity. The sugpo practically manages itself in the semi-extensive pond — the caretaker only needs cast-net harvest skills and basic PL sourcing knowledge. The upside per peso spent is extraordinary.

Where to Buy Sugpo PL in Bulacan/Manila Area

SupplierLocationContactPrice Range
BFAR Brackishwater StationBonuan, Dagupan, Pangasinan(075) 522-2383₱0.80–₱1.20/PL
Mindanao private hatcheries (via broker)General Santos CityVia Divisoria fish market brokers₱1.00–₱1.50/PL
Malabon fish market brokersMalabon, Metro ManilaAsk Sean for local contacts₱1.00–₱2.00/PL
Local Bulacan prawn farmersHagonoy, Paombong areaThrough LGU fisheries office₱1.00–₱1.80/PL
Timing: Order PL 4–6 weeks before your target Cycle 2 stocking date (approximately November–December 2026 for first sugpo introduction). Confirm availability with BFAR first — they are most reliable for Bulacan.

6. Verdict & Recommendation

Year 1 Choice
3-4-5 inch
@ ₱2.20/pc · 2.4 cycles/yr
Add Sugpo From
Cycle 2
~Dec 2026 · ₱166,900/cycle extra
Year 1 Net (with sugpo)
₱3,216,000
3-4-5 inch + Sugpo
3.5yr Total (with sugpo)
₱14,308,000
3-4-5 inch + Sugpo
GO — Size 3-4-5 inch (₱2.20/pc) + Sugpo Polyculture from Cycle 2

Year 1: Stock 80,000 size 3-4-5 inch fingerlings (40k/box). Complete Cycle 1 (harvest Oct/Nov 2026) without sugpo — focus on establishing operations and team rhythm.

From Cycle 2 (Dec 2026): Introduce 7,375 sugpo PL per box alongside bangus stocking. Sugpo adds ₱166,900 net per cycle with minimal extra work.

Year 2+ (Cycle 3–4): Evaluate upgrade to size 5-7 inch fingerlings (₱8.00) if cash reserves allow ₱640k/cycle fingerling cost. This unlocks 3.5 cycles/year and pushes annual net above ₱5M with sugpo.

Decision Tree: Which Fingerling Size to Order?

SituationChoose This SizeReason
Year 1 (new farm, building systems)Size 3-4-5 inch @ ₱2.20Best balance of cost, cycle speed, and manageable risk
Fingerling supply disruption (3-4-5 inch unavailable)Size 2-3-4 inch @ ₱1.80Comparable cycles, slightly less margin, still solid
Cash reserves exceed ₱2M, supplier confirmedSize 5-7 inch @ ₱8.00Maximum cycles/year — highest long-term return
Emergency/off-season (no fingerlings available)Fry @ ₱0.50Last resort — add nursery management complexity

Sugpo Summary

QuestionAnswer
Sugpo or Vannamei?Sugpo — suited to semi-extensive ponds, no aerators, premium price
Aerators needed?No — at 2,500 PL/ha, natural pond DO is sufficient
Harvest time?~100-120 days, harvest same time as bangus (or 1-2 wks before)
Additional equipment?Cast nets (~₱5,000), ice supply, cooler boxes for transport
When to introduce?Cycle 2 (December 2026) — after proving farm operations in Cycle 1
3.5yr upside of adding sugpo?+₱1,356,000 over bangus-only (size 3-4-5 inch scenario)
ROI on ₱30k sugpo setup cost?+₱1,356,000 / ₱30,000 = 45× return over 3.5 years
Next steps: (1) Confirm size 3-4-5 inch fingerling supplier and lock in Cycle 1 delivery (target July 3-9, 2026). (2) Plan sugpo PL order for Cycle 2 from BFAR Dagupan. (3) Brief Aaron/Sean on cast-net harvest technique for sugpo before Cycle 2. (4) See BFS-009 for probiotics strategy to further boost survival and FCR.

BFS-008 · Paombong Pond Farm · Stocking Size & Sugpo Polyculture Analysis · May 2026 · Gary (remote owner, Canada) · Aaron & Sean (farm managers, Bulacan)